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2. PopulationProjections
2.1. Introduction
Two essential tasks involved in planninghealth policy and social services forArizona?s aging
adults are the assessment ofArizona?s current population age structure and the development of
projections describing the characteristics ofArizona?s future population. In 2010, about 14
percent ofArizonanswere 65 years of age or older, with about 83 percent of these residents
beingWhite non-Hispanic. Changes in aspects of fertility,mortality, and immigrationwill affect
the age-structure ofArizona?s population, placing increasing stress onwelfare systems designed
to care for older adults. For example, the entire population ofArizona is projected to increase by
more than 80 percent from the 6,401,568 residents estimated to have lived inArizona on July1
st
,
2010 to a projected 11,562,584 by2050. The number ofArizonans age 65 and older is expected
to increase 174 percent from 883,014 in 2010 to 2,422,186 in 2050. The age structure of our
population alsowill shift, increasing the proportion of adults age 65 and older in the population
to an estimated 21 percent of the entire population. Thiswill be accompanied by a decrease in
the proportion ofworking-ageArizonanswho help support older adults in numerousways
includingpaying taxes onwages that help fundSocial Security andMedicare. Alongwith an
increase in the overall number and proportion of residents represented by adults age 65 and
older, Arizona?s populationwill becomemore heterogeneous and diverse in terms of
race/ethnicity. The interplayof these factors presents a difficult scenario for those taskedwith
planninghealth policy to accommodate the changing characteristics ofArizona?s older adult
population.
2.2Methodology
The population projections used in this report were developed by theArizonaDepartment of
Administration?sOffice of Employment andPopulationStatistics (
estimates.aspx). Using adjusted 2010 census counts as a baseline, the cohort-componentmethod
was used to create population projections by age, sex, race, and ethnic group for each year from
2011 through 2050. The cohort-componentmethod of population projection is designed to
estimate projected populations by taking into accountmultiple inputs to population change
including current population, rates of fertility,mortality, andmigration, aswell as special
populations such asmilitary and college students.
TheADOApopulation projectionswere aggregated every10 years to create projected population
estimates by age and racial/ethnic group. These estimateswere used to compare the racial/ethnic
distribution ofArizona?s total population to the population of adults age 65 and older. Population
pyramidswere created to visually compare the population distribution ofArizonans by5-year
age group and sex for 2010 and 2050, and dependency ratioswere used to compare the number
of economically inactive residents to the number of economically active residents (calculated as
the sum ofArizona residents age 0 ? 14 and age 65 and older divided by the number ofArizona
residents age 15 ? 64).
